Leaving Houston Heartbroken (But Still Hopeful)

Luis Scola - quickly replacing the Birdman as my least favorite player in the league

A few observations following yesterday's game, and the ensuing fallout:

• Over four games, Houston's rebounding advantage now stands at +24, and that figure probably doesn't even do them justice. 36 defensive boards in game 1, 31 in game 2, 32 in game 3, and 16 offensive rebounds yesterday have been one of, if not the, definitive advantages in this series. Two road games lost by a total of four points leads people to point to a lot of different aspects, but there's little doubt in my mind that the second chance points were the Blazer's downfall last night.

• Second to not hitting the boards hard enough, Portland's lack of execution late in the game has been baffling. FTT likes Steve Blake, I love Steve Blake, I think he encapsulates a lot of what this team is all about, and as much as his renewed confidence has gotten Portland very close in the last two games, his mistakes may have had even more of an impact. A poorly chosen shot attempt in game 3 might probably sealed Portland's loss, and a forehead-slapping turnover right after the Blazers had stolen the ball from Yao on the other end really deflated the team - but Blake could certainly spread the blame around in game 4. Whether it was Joel tossing a key offensive rebound halfway across the court, Brandon getting rejected and drawing an offensive foul on what was maybe Portland's most important possession of the game, or Travis jacking up a mind-numbing desperation 3-pointer to tie the game, the Blazers just haven't shown the cutthroat play that earned them the best record in games decided by three or less during the regular season.

• Shane Battier, man oh man. Duke graduate, intellectual guy, speech a little effeminate, tough/smart defensive type, what's not to hate? I don't like dwelling on "what-ifs?", but you have to wonder what this series might look like if not for three or four insanely clutch 3-pointers by Battier late in games 3 and 4, I for one am positive that Portland would most likely have grabbed one of those games. Without T-Mac, it was thought by some that Houston was at a disadvantage by not having a player who could create his own shot late in the game, but clearly the Rockets are not lacking in confidence or ability to hit shots.

• Last, but certainly not least:
  

This, my friends, IS A FOUL. If the referees are going to call four fouls on our two big men in the first quarter, it just has to go both ways. This is a physical series, the Blazers are playing against a physical team that has gained a reputation of being very chippy, which is fine, but the refereeing in this series has been unbelievably inconsistent. Of all the things to look at, the calls are really the last thing I want to blame for Portland being down 3-1, but when it's just four measly points separating two evenly matched teams, you just can't ignore the fact that Portland has been called for 101 fouls compared to Houston's 83, resulting in 96 free throw attempts for Houston and only 79 for Portland.

I think I have ranted long enough, but as for that "still hopeful" part of the title, I can't count this team out of the series. A win Tuesday would force a game 6 in Houston, and it's apparent to me after the last two games that the Blazers are due for a win in Texas.

Links

• Heartwarming writeup on The Schonz
• Two brilliant articles via Truehoop, one by "blogfather" Henry Abbott and the other from Kevin Arnovitz
  
• He's terrible on "Talkin' Ball", but I really enjoy Dwight Jayne's articles
• Yahoo's Ball Don't Lie has some good stuff on game 4
• Kerry Eggers, Portland Tribune writer, has not lost hope
• Daily Dime doesn't mince words, and the truth is hard to read
• A block from Houston's paper: one, two, three, four! Four articles praising their team's big victory, but all them have this almost "phew!" factor to them, seriously Blazer fans, we haven't lost this series yet
  

Rip City Redemption

Alright, now we got ourselves a series.

Yao Ming: seemingly incapable of committing a fifth foul

I don't think I'll be going to another playoff game, not in this series at least. Don't get me wrong, game 2 was absolutely electric, the crowd was really buzzing down the stretch, and the forth quarter was simply thrilling. Even after game 1 I knew the Blazers just needed to acclimate to this whole "playoff atmosphere" thing. Honestly, the reason I'm not scrambling for tickets to game 5 of this series is that I can't stand to watch the Houston Rockets.

Over the course of two games, the Rocket's players have played very, very physical defense, hit insane shots at a rate much higher than during the regular season, gotten to the basket consistently (sometimes with shocking ease), and generally made total nuisances of themselves. I can't go through all the hoopla necessary to get to a postseason game at the Rose Garden to watch Aaron Brooks and Ron Artest throw up 30-footers that draw nothing but court.

Taking refuge in a local bar for the next two road games will be a welcome respite from the nervousness I feel when in the Rose Garden. With time winding down in the forth quarter Tuesday night, I found myself going back and forth between wondering how we could recover from going down 2-0 to feeling like I was taking crazy pills at some of the calls/no-calls administered by the refs. However, I don't want it looking like FTT's absence at the next home has any bearing on our outlook on how successful Portland can be in this series. Hell, even with Houston playing out of their minds right now, the Blazers find themselves even at one a piece, with a chance to turn the series on it's head come Friday night.

Going into game 3, the keys and adjustments Matt wrote are still gold, and should be followed like scripture. Here are a couple addendums and additions to keep in mind if Portland is going to get a win over the next two games:

• Seize the size advantage

With Dekembe going down on Tuesday, the Rockets are without a true backup center against one of the longest teams in the league. When Yao isn't on the court, the Blazer bigs must dominate Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry. On the boards and in the paint, if Portland can't hurt Houston when their big man is on the bench, this series won't make it to games 6 or 7.

• Start strong and confident

There's no doubt in my mind that Houston will come out firing tomorrow night, the question is whether Portland can stay in touch in the first half. Nate has preached believing in oneself to his players because he knows there's no room for self-doubt on the road. If the Blazers are going to be successful, they need to start well (i.e. put some points up) and not fall behind by too much in the opening minutes.

• Continue attacking Yao

After treating him as some sort of deity in the first game, Portland did a great job really bringing the game to Mr. Ming in game 2. Early foul trouble was made possible by players attacking Yao and Joel using his tact and know-how to trick the big man. Even though the zebras refused to call any fouls on him in the forth quarter, the Blazers' ability to limit Yao's influence on the game was paramount to their success in game 2, and they need to continue the effort to ensure that Houston's franchise player doesn't torch them in games 3 and 4.

• Please, outplay their bench

In game 2, the Rockets' bench outscored ours 32-23. Seriously, this is unacceptable. In what promises to be a close series, Houston's bench registering a +9 in the bench points category is huge, and when you consider we should own that category against this team, it becomes even more of a concern. On top of the lukewarm bench performance, Portland starters not named Brandon and LaMarcus put up 15 points, so the question of where the offense will come from if not from our big two needs to be answered for the Blazers to stand a chance.

Links

• Oregon Live is all over the size thing
• Nice letter to Mutombo via Truehoop
• Another Blazer blog enters the fray. Welcome, brothers
• A little love from NBA TV
• A LOT of love from SI
  
• Greg Oden - already an elite player in certain categories
• Couple stories from Houston Chronicle that are worth looking at: One laments the lack of T-Mac, the other touches on the tightrope being walked by Houston's offense

That's all for now Blazer fans, look for Brandon to continue to be a bullet-proof tiger on Friday and scoring baskets on the reg.

Game Day - Tweet Tweet, Biiiitch

FTT will be at the game in full tonight, and for the first time we will be tweeting during the action. Peep http://twitter.com/FollowThaTrail and follow the trail as it's blazed.

Portland v Houston Game 2 - Heed The Keys

I hate when we at FTT nail, and I mean nail, the game keys in our previews, only to see the team disregard them in full and lose big. The good thing is with this team it almost never happens. Game one was one of these times. We got off to (1) a horrible start, (2) decided not to front Yao in the post, and (3) got beat on the glass even though Yao didn't play many minutes. We cannot possibly do any worse, so things are looking up.

Now, to our new series during the playoffs. We will highlight game-to-game adjustments that need to be made on the road to postseason success. After all, the playoffs are about adjustments more than anything else.

Adjustment 1: Loosen up

The team came out flat. No technical speak here. We need to come out with more fire, more aggressiveness and with the attitude that we belong. Sometimes basketball games are decided by the team that wants it more. We have to be that team. Start taking shots in rhythm. Start cutting with a purpose. Move the ball. We've done it all year. We have to find that again or it'll be a short postseason.

Adjustment 2: Front Yao

Also see: Read my game keys. Yao's biggest shortcomeing in my opinion is lateral footspeed. If we force him to move around to get the ball in the post our positioning will be much better and the Rockets will have less shot clock to work with.

Adjustment 3: Ball pressure

Aaron Brooks cannot be allowed to do what he did in Game 1. We must pressure him coming up the floor to slow down their sets and to set a new tone for the series. Which brings us to...

Adjustment 4: PLAY BAYLESS

I didn't say start, I said play. Play him. Send him out there with one mission: shut Brooks down. Keep it that simple and Bayless will deliver, I'm telling you.

The series keys remain unchanged.

Update

Sean Meagher has quotes from Nate and video clips from Roy and Aldridge.

Blazers v Rockets - Series Preview

Post- 40 footer for the win

Time to get down to business.

First, let's get to know the Houston Rockets.

Houston is a team that makes it's living on the defensive end, ranking in the top five in the NBA for defensive efficiency. They have two top tier defensive players in Ron Artest and Shane Battier, although both, particularly Ron Ron, haven't played as well as they have in the past. Lately Artest has been seen taking lazy swipes at drivers and picking up more reaching-type fouls than in previous years. Shane is still a cagey, strong defender who uses his hoops IQ to put himself in the right position more often than not, but he too has seemed to have lost a half step. Both can knock down the 3 ball, and Ron can still handle the rock extremely well for a player his size.

The Rockets are led at point by former Oregon Duck great Aaron Brooks, who was given the starting job after Houston shipped playground legend Rafer Alston to the Orlando Magic. Brooks is lightning quick, shoots well from distance, and is great at the line. Argentinian Luis Scola, a blue collar banger with a decent (if not terribly ugly) stroke will start at power forward. And Yao Ming, China's 7'5" savior of basketball, will patrol the paint, looking to get bammed on. But really, he is extremely good on the low block, and even if you manage to haul him away from the paint, he'll yap J's out to about 18 feet. The guy is a true wonderment, and any big man that says it's harder for tall people to shoot freebies just isn't working hard enough; Yao shoots a ridiculous 88% from the stripe.

So now that you've met the Houston starters, let's look at how they match up with our guys.

PG - Brooks v Blake *Advantage Portland*

Steve, as has been said many times this season, is playing the best ball of his career. He's shooting around 43% from 3 and running the team with great confidence. Brooks is by far the better athlete, but the Rockets have only been his team for half a season. Although the Rockets play at a faster pace than do the Blazers (who doesn't?), it still isn't fast enough to take full advantage of Brooks' main asset: speed. This match up is going to favor Blake because of his experience, both with his team and the league itself.

SG - Artest v Roy *Advantage Portland*

This match up would have been a push, but after thinking outside the box for a while here's what I think it comes down to: Ron Ron is a nut case and Roy possesses a demeanor that was made for playoff basketball. One big knock on Houston, even before Artest showed up, is that they let game slip away mentally. Just go back and look at their last regular season game. If the old saying is right, and cooler heads really do prevail, then I'll be proven correct and Roy will win this match up over the length of the series.

SF - Battier v Batum *Advantage Houston*

In a few years, this match up will go our way every time, but for now Battier holds the upper hand over the French heartbreaker. Sorry, rook.

PF - Scola v Aldridge *Advantage Portland*

While Aldridge is clearly the better player, Scola has given him problems this year with his physical brand of defense, not to mention his well-timed flops that NBA officiating crews still haven't figured out. Oh, and he wears that extremely feminine hair band thingy. Note to Luis: this is America. We rock head bands, not hair bands. Update your swag.

C - Ming v Pryz *Advantage Houston*

The guy is 7'5". This is not to say that Joel can't handle him, because I've seen it happen. But I'd look like a mega-homer if I pick against Yao. So I won't.

Bench Keys

Portland has the better bench squad by far in my mind. In fact, Houston's bench includes a cat we didn't even want to keep around, Von Wafer. He's had a good season, and threw down a nasty dunk last time we played, but honestly I'm not too worried about the Rockets' reserves.

Series Keys

• Quick starts and setting the pace

It's never a good thing to go down early to a solid defensive squad like the Rockets. Playing well in the first quarter is a huge key, especially against a team known to be prone to mental lapses. A big component of this is pace. Yes, it's true that the Blazers play the slowest game in the league, but anyone who has watched games this season knows that the Blazers can run, and Coach Nate has said that he wants the ball across half court with 20 seconds on the shot clock. We can beat Yao down the floor for easy buckets and we should at every opportunity.

• Fronting the post and contesting outside shots

The Blazers' defensive rotations have looked sharp the past couple of weeks, and they'll have to stay that way if we want to deny the post to Yao. The main thing to do is make sure that we don't leave the weak side of the floor unchecked because Houston has a gaggle of 3 point shooters just waiting to punish a fronting defense. But if we can deny the ball to the post and get out on shooters, it's going to be a long series for the Rockets.

• Own the glass

Stick with what got us here, basically. We are the NBA's best rebounding team, and this would be an awful time to go back on that. Watch for Scola; he's a crafty rebounder despite his poor leaping ability. Hold the Rockets to one shot per possession and the game will seem a thousand times easier to manage.

Well, there's your series preview; it should be a good one. Don't forget to register your predictions on the right side of the screen. Go Blazers!

Houston, You Have A Problem (Early Morning Observations)

Some problems, to be more precise:

Problem 1

Brandon Roy - eliciting chants of "MVP!" wherever he goes

Problem 2

LaMarcus Aldridge - talented as he is handsome

Problem 3

Portland Fans - we do it real, real big

Not to rub it in for anyone reading this from outside Portland, but today was a very good day to be a Blazer. It didn't necessarily start that way for me though.

For all intents and purposes, I have never woken up at 5:00 am and enjoyed it, but I knew the only chance at getting a ticket for a decent price was to arrive as early as possible before the box office opened at noon. As it happened, I was already way behind, not even in the first 300 when I arrived at the Rose Quarter at 6:00 am. Their were rumblings amongst the fans waiting in line that the box office was allotting a maximum of eight tickets per person (four per game), which would have left the majority of the hundreds lined up without a ticket, and myself precariously positioned on the bubble.

Whether it was quick decisions made by the people who were in charge (possible) or just misinformation being passed around by a bunch of sleep-deprived Blazer maniacs (very probable), it turned out that each person was only going to be able to buy 1-4 tickets per game, with a maximum of four tickets total. The news that most of us would have the chance to get some good seats came as an obvious relief, and I really have to hand it to the Rose Garden and event staff. When I arrived at six, things were very unorganized, and a lot of questions were not being answered. But as the sun peeked over the Rose Quarter, a crew of red-shirted staff descended on the unruly mob and partitioned the winding line into a more reasonable state while assuring the first 500 or so people that the chances of them securing tickets to one of the games was almost a sure thing.

The celebrations didn't end when I left the box office with two tickets for each of the first two home games, they were just getting started. Pioneer Courthouse Square was rockin', the sun was shining, and any Portlander that didn't skip work for tickets was clamoring for a view of the stage for when the team arrived. Securing my prime location on one of the marble slabs outcropping over the fountain (I can easily point out where I am in the panoramic shots of the square and the line for tickets, if you're interested), I witnessed a rousing welcome for the team and its coaches in which each player was given a chance to speak.

It felt like a proper tribute for a team that has succeeded by committee - everyone plays a part, everyone makes a contribution. The crowd drowned out most of what was said by the fan favorites: Roy, Aldridge, Przybilla and Batum, but Rudy's attempt to pump the crowd up by shouting something like "Let go win the playoffs!" at the end of his talk was my favorite moment by far.





So here we are, Blazer believers, about 48 hours before what we've all been hoping for begins. A playoff series against one of the league's best teams while holding home court advantage promises some amazing drama. I'm not going to break down the finer points of the match up (Matt can if he wants, he's much better at that stuff), but how Yao is handled, how Brandon deals with Battier and Artest's defense, and whether Portland can get a result in Houston all stand out to me as the questions begging to be answered over the next two weeks.

It's hard to be concerned with some team from Texas though when you just spent the whole day soaking up the love from the league's most exciting team.

Links

• The final part of J-Quick's series for the regular season
• The Houston Chronicle loves Houston, and gives Portland moderate amounts of respect
• ESPN block, including the series' main page, Mark Stein's breakdown, and a forum of babbling fans
• Houston's blogs are inferior to Portland's blogs, but The Dream Shake is still talking shit
• Although the flash-based site is still a bit cumbersome in its design and sluggish to load, check out the Trailblazer's main page, freshly updated for the playoffs
• One more fantastic pic from Mike Barrett's blog, this time, the reserves show their strength

Saturday night, Portland begins the second part of this already amazing season, I wouldn't suggest missing it.

Coming Tomorrow:
Starters Match-ups, Game Keys, Witty Commentary

Things break down, and Blazers rectify

POR (50-28) 95
SAN (50-28) 83

Recap
Boxscore
Video Highlights

outlook on continuing dynasty: not good

To think, on Tuesday night, Brandon told reporters that the Blazers biggest gut check of the season came against the Grizzlies.

But not even Portland's best player could foresee erasing a similar deficit against the Spurs the night after overcoming an 18 point lead by Memphis. Down by as much as 19 at one point, the Blazers showed amazing resilience once again by clawing their way back into a game, this time though they were on the road, against one of the west's elite teams. And now, what was being largely ignored a couple weeks ago is now staring everyone in the face: Portland follows only LA as the team no one wants to see in the post season, home court or no home court.

The exclamation points just keep coming in a season where big win after big win has commentators giving variations on the phrase "Portland wins in/against _______ for the first time in ______." With the last extended road trip of the season out of the way, the Blazers have given themselves a real chance to win out in the regular season, and are tantalizingly close to realizing their ambition of home court in the first round, with an outside chance for a division title still within reach.

How are the Blazers continuing to roll as the season comes to a close? Read on...

Stimulants

• LMA, B-Roy, and Blakey are all giving key contributions when they are most needed. LaMarcus continues putting up all-star figures with a 20 point, 10-13 shooting night, and really lifted the team with his play in the third quarter. Blake's 11 points, five boards, seven assists and one turnover show how invaluable he has been during the final stretch of the season. Brandon Roy scored a game-high 26 points and his +/- stood at 17, also a game-high.
• Portland's bench provided the spark against the comeback in Memphis, and once again gave the Blazers some much needed energy as the game looked to get out of hand. Outlaw, Oden, Rodriguez and Fernandez combined for 35 points on 15-26 shooting from the field, 12 rebounds, four assists and one turnover. I thought Oden was efficient again with the time given to him (4-5 from the field, 8 boards, 8 points, 2 bocks in 22 minutes), and really am looking forward to a game where he gets to play 30+ minutes (I'm looking in your direction, terrible referees of the NBA).
• We've all heard the stats: Portland has the best record of any team in the league when down by double digits, and in games decided by three points or less. Translation: clutch team that gets wet. I had by head buried in my hands for a lot of the first half (actually it was a glass of scotch), but after two comebacks in a row, I'll never again make the mistake of thinking we're out of any game.
  

Depressants

• The 1st quarter
• Greg rim-checking himself on a dunk attempt (he still played great)
  

Links

• Behind The Blazers Locker Room Door series continues with stops in Memphis and San Antonio
• The San Antonio Express doesn't like what it sees
  
• Martell Webster is done for the season
• Yahoo's Ball Don't Lie has some words of wisdom for Oden haters
• Nostalgic interview from Beyond The Beat
• More proof that Greg is great
• Rudy Fernandez makes David Thorpe's second team all-rookie. History will make a fool of Thorpe for not mentioning Oden and Batum.

That's it for now, the L*ke show is coming tomorrow night, and anyone looking to go to the game that doesn't have tickets is welcome to join us at FTT in bargaining for 300 level seats.

Picture of the week